Forecast inputs
Start with price, financing and rent. More assumptions are below so the result stays readable.
The price paid for the property.
Loan amount is calculated as purchase price minus deposit.
Used for the mortgage payment and year-by-year loan balance.
Used to estimate scheduled principal and interest payments.
The first-year rent before vacancy and arrears.
Risk, growth and region assumptionsVacancy, expenses, reserves, growth, selling costs and regional settings.ScenariosExpensesRegionExport
Optional. If blank, purchase price is used as the starting value.
Annual rent growth assumption. Negative values are allowed.
Percent of annual rent assumed not collected.
Monthly non-mortgage costs before maintenance, CapEx and buffer.
Annual growth assumption for operating costs and reserves.
Monthly allowance for ongoing repairs and maintenance.
Monthly planning allowance for larger replacements. It is not treated as a guaranteed tax deduction.
Extra monthly buffer for local cost increases and compliance work.
Annual value-growth assumption. Negative values are allowed.
Used to make the downside scenario less reliant on value growth.
Default is 10 years. The calculator supports 1 to 30 years.
Estimated selling costs deducted from the end value.
Region changes labels, currency formatting and the optional NZ tax section only. It does not convert values.
Current formatting
United States · USD
Projected total return before tax is $100,633.
Result summary
10-year forecast
A year-by-year rental forecast using the assumptions entered.
$100,633
Base case shows -$29,601 cumulative pre-tax cash flow and $190,234 ending equity after selling costs.
Key takeaway
The base forecast needs cash top-ups in 10 years. Check the downside scenario before relying on value growth.
Key numbers
- Cumulative cash flow
- -$29,601
- Ending equity after sale costs
- $190,234
- Return on cash
- 167.7%
- Negative cash-flow years
- 10
Before tax and before the final sale outcome.
Estimated value minus loan balance and selling costs.
Total return before tax compared with the deposit entered.
Years where rent after costs does not cover debt service.
Scenario comparison
Downside, base and upside use the same core inputs with cautious changes to vacancy, expenses, growth and selling costs.
| Scenario | Cumulative cash flow | Ending equity after costs | Total return before tax | Cash-flow gaps |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Downside | -$85,753 | $150,225 | $4,471 | 10 |
| Base | -$29,601 | $190,234 | $100,633 | 10 |
| Upside | -$8,680 | $209,639 | $140,958 | 6 |
Return source breakdown
- Cash flow returnCumulative pre-tax cash flow over the holding period.
- -$29,601
- Principal paydownLoan balance reduction from scheduled principal repayments.
- $39,154
- Assumed value growthChange in estimated property value from the growth assumption.
- $103,175
- Selling-cost impactEstimated cost to sell at the end of the holding period.
- -$12,095
- Total return before taxCash flow plus sale/equity outcome, minus the starting deposit.
- $100,633
Assumptions used
- Purchase and loanStarting LTV 80.0% with a 30-year loan.
- $300,000 purchase / $240,000 loan
- Rent and vacancyRent growth 3% per year; vacancy/arrears allowance 5%.
- $2,200/month starting rent
- Operating expensesIncludes operating expenses, routine maintenance, CapEx reserve and insurance/rates/compliance buffer.
- $1,050/month
- Growth and selling costs10% value-fall stress is used in the downside scenario.
- 3% growth / 3% selling costs
- Forecast lengthThe full table shows one row per forecast year.
- 10 years
Warnings to note
- Loan-to-value is high. Leverage can lift return-on-cash metrics, but it also increases downside risk.
- 10 forecast years show negative pre-tax cash flow.
- Most of the projected return comes from assumed property value growth. If growth is lower or selling costs are higher, the result changes materially.
Year-by-year forecast
The table is intentionally lower on the page so the summary and warnings stay visible first.
| Year | Effective rent | Expenses | Debt service | Cash flow | Loan balance | Property value | Equity after selling costs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $25,080 | $12,600 | $17,267 | -$4,787 | $237,053 | $309,000 | $62,677 |
| 2 | $25,832 | $12,978 | $17,267 | -$4,413 | $233,924 | $318,270 | $74,798 |
| 3 | $26,607 | $13,367 | $17,267 | -$4,027 | $230,602 | $327,818 | $87,382 |
| 4 | $27,406 | $13,768 | $17,267 | -$3,630 | $227,075 | $337,653 | $100,448 |
| 5 | $28,228 | $14,181 | $17,267 | -$3,221 | $223,330 | $347,782 | $114,018 |
| 6 | $29,075 | $14,607 | $17,267 | -$2,799 | $219,355 | $358,216 | $128,114 |
| 7 | $29,947 | $15,045 | $17,267 | -$2,365 | $215,135 | $368,962 | $142,759 |
| 8 | $30,845 | $15,496 | $17,267 | -$1,918 | $210,654 | $380,031 | $157,976 |
| 9 | $31,771 | $15,961 | $17,267 | -$1,458 | $205,896 | $391,432 | $173,793 |
| 10 | $32,724 | $16,440 | $17,267 | -$983 | $200,846 | $403,175 | $190,234 |
What this forecast does not include
Use this as a planning estimate, not as a quote, approval, valuation or tax calculation.
- It does not predict future rent, expenses, property values or refinance outcomes.
- It does not include full tax returns, ownership structures, GST, depreciation, provisional tax or bright-line tax payable.
- It does not include lender approval, insurance approval, legal checks, building reports or every local ownership cost.
- It does not recommend buying, selling, refinancing or holding a property.
General estimate only
This calculator provides a general estimate only. It is not tax, legal, mortgage, insurance, investment, property or financial advice. It does not predict future rent, property values, loan approval, refinance outcomes or tax treatment.
Copy or export this forecast
Copy a plain-English summary or download a CSV with the inputs, scenarios, year-by-year rows, warnings and general-estimate note.
Exports are generated in your browser. NoNoiseTools does not need to store your numbers or require an account.
How this rental forecast calculator works
The calculator starts with purchase price, deposit, loan terms and rent, then projects rent, expenses, mortgage amortization, cash flow, loan balance, estimated property value and equity one year at a time.
The base case uses the assumptions you enter. The downside and upside rows adjust vacancy, expenses, growth and selling costs so the main result is not read as a single-point prediction.
Region settings affect labels, currency formatting and the optional NZ tax estimate only. They do not convert currencies or turn the forecast into local legal, tax, insurance or mortgage advice.
What this forecast is useful for
Use it when a quick rental cash-flow calculator is not enough and you want to see how loan balance, value growth, selling costs and cash-flow gaps could interact over a longer holding period.
What this calculator does not include
This calculator provides general estimates only. It does not predict future rent, expenses, property values, refinance approvals, sale proceeds or tax outcomes. It is not financial, tax, legal, accounting, mortgage, insurance or investment advice.
Key terms and assumptionsFormula notes, key terms, source assumptions and limits used in this calculator.
These notes are specific to this calculator. Read the property methodology notes for shared property formulas, region settings and estimate limits.
- Year-by-year model
- The forecast projects each year from the starting rent, growth assumptions, expense assumptions, mortgage amortization and property value assumption.
- Effective rent
- Vacancy and arrears reduce gross rent before operating expenses and mortgage payments are subtracted.
- Maintenance and CapEx
- Routine maintenance and major repairs / CapEx reserve are entered separately as monthly cash-flow planning amounts.
- Scenario comparison
- Downside, base and upside scenarios change vacancy, expenses, growth and selling costs to show sensitivity.
- Return source breakdown
- The result separates cash flow, principal paydown, assumed value growth and selling-cost impact.
- NZ tax estimate
- The optional NZ tax estimate appears only when region is set to New Zealand and uses simplified annual rules. It is not tax advice.
- General estimate
- The calculator does not predict future prices, rents, finance approval, refinance outcomes, tax treatment or all local ownership costs.
Guides and methodology
Plain-English notes that explain the assumptions behind related calculators and tools.
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FAQs
What does this 10-year rental forecast estimate?
It estimates year-by-year rent, effective rent, expenses, mortgage amortization, cash flow, loan balance, property value, equity and total return before tax.
Is this a prediction of future property value?
No. Property growth is an assumption you enter. The calculator shows how sensitive the result can be to that assumption.
How are downside and upside scenarios created?
The downside scenario uses more cautious vacancy, expense, selling-cost and growth assumptions. The upside scenario uses lighter stress assumptions. They are sensitivity checks, not forecasts.
Does the forecast include tax?
It is pre-tax by default. If the region is New Zealand, an optional simplified NZ tax estimate can be enabled, but it is not tax advice and does not model full tax returns or bright-line tax payable.
Why does leverage affect the result?
A smaller deposit can make return-on-cash look larger, but the loan still increases downside risk when cash flow, rates or property values move against the scenario.
Should I use the Rental Property Calculator first?
Yes. Use the Rental Property Calculator for a quick deal sanity check, then use this forecast when you want a longer hold-and-sale view.
Is this investment advice?
No. This calculator is a general estimate only and is not financial, tax, legal, accounting, mortgage, insurance, property or investment advice.